We historians are a pessimistic lot, I think. It is hard to study history and not see the great capacity humans have for hurting each other. And while history doesn't repeat itself, it does often rhyme, to quote the phrase. Max Fisher writes a terrifying article in Vox.com about the very real possibility of World War III with Russia. It is more likely than I thought possible. It is true that very often, the first 20-30 years of a new century are fraught with unrest, war, change, and revolution. Our own time is quite ripe for a major upheaval. We've lived in comfortable times for a long time now, and perhaps we've forgotten what it is to be really afraid and insecure in our daily lives.
We've also lived with the averted spectacle of nuclear war for so many years that I think many of us have forgotten the lessons of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Fisher:
"Europe today looks disturbingly similar to the Europe of just over 100 years ago, on the eve of World War I. It is a tangle of military commitments and defense pledges, some of them unclear and thus easier to trigger. Its leaders have given vague signals for what would and would not lead to war. Its political tensions have become military buildups. Its nations are teetering on an unstable balance of power, barely held together by a Cold War–era alliance that no longer quite applies.
If you take a walk around Washington or a Western European capital today, there is no feeling of looming catastrophe. The threats are too complex, with many moving pieces and overlapping layers of risk adding up to a larger danger that is less obvious. People can be forgiven for not seeing the cloud hanging over them, for feeling that all is well — even as in Eastern Europe they are digging in for war. But this complacency is itself part of the problem, making the threat more difficult to foresee, to manage, or, potentially, to avert."
I'll admit it, I'm afraid. Afraid for my family, for my children, afraid for the world we may all have to inhabit if Russia pulls the nuclear trigger. 100 years ago, the Great War brought down the entire political system of Europe--almost all the monarchies crumbled, ways of life were obliterated, catastrophic loss of life on all sides of the conflict, and a whole generation of young men killed or maimed in body and soul. The Treaty of Versailles set the conditions for the conflicts of the 30 years that followed.
I understand very well why Russians feel so paranoid--we in the West have a short collective memory; it is hard for us to live into the reality of the Eastern mind that remembers everything in present tense. Russia spent most of its long history fending off invaders, and has a long collective memory of occupation and armed conflict on its borders. There are no natural barriers to prevent invasion from the West (the Urals are the first major geographical boundary, and they are quite far into Russian territory), and in the last 500 years, Russia saw Western invasions from Poland, Ukraine, France, and Germany. The Eastern side saw repeated invasion and brutal occupation by the Mongols. My interpretation of the current situation is that the belligerence isn't so much aggression as it is basic fear of invasion. The chest thumping that Putin engages in is a show for the people, a way of saying that he, Putin, will protect the people when the invasion comes. It may not correspond with the political or military reality on either side of the issue, but these things are not always rational or logical. But then, that is how war is made. And sometimes, the sky really is falling.
(Fisher's article is fairly long, but Rod Dreher has a nice excerpt on his blog today)
Pray for the peace of the world.
This is an insightful post. It seems Americans can't see past their noses....I too have been feeling a bit edgy about where we are historically in view of a 'World War'. The waters have been still for so long.
ReplyDeleteI stumbled across a book by an Orthodox Priest by the name of Alexander Men. I was wondering if you knew of him and your opinion of him. Thank you.
Fr. Alexander was martyred in 1990. David Remnick covers it in one of his books, I think. He was a brave man and said a lot of unpopular things during the years when saying such things resulted in gulag sentences or worse. I think he is a good man, and lived a life of service to the Church, although I've not read any of his books, so I can't comment on his writing. I do greatly admire him, though. Would be curious to know what you think (come back and comment on this post when you finish if you think of it)
DeleteInteresting post. When I volunteered as an English language tutor I noticed that as our beginning level adult students filled out their registration forms to attend class, about 90% of our Russian students were puzzled when they came to the section on the form that had the word "Occupation". Even though they knew very little English, they recognized the word "Occupation" , and they questioned why there would be a blank space on the form asking about "Occupation". They were thinking in terms of war time. "Occupation" had a completely different meaning for them than it did for the creators of the registration form. This reaction came from our beginning level Russian adult students of all ages, twenties through late sixties.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your interpretation of the current situation.
How interesting! I was always struck by how the Great Patriotic War was so much to the forefront of people's memories, even young people, when in America, it is a distant even with aging veterans. But then, we didn't lose 27 million people in the conflict, either.
DeleteI've been reading your blog for a long time now, and this very post made me realise why you love and understand Russia so well. Because you're pessimistic historian, and I've never seen more pessimists than in Russia or post-soviet world.
ReplyDelete"Russia spent most of its long history fending off invaders, and has a long collective memory of occupation and armed conflict on its borders." - this is quite true, I agree, but Russia's no angel either, you know. They've been occupying a lot of countries too and before there was any Russia at all, "westerns" came and exterminated all the natives. For example, mongols that are left today, live just like American natives.
I believe (no historian, just a former journalist here), wars are artificial and very egotistical. Some people in power made up ideas, brainwash their nation and there you go: war, poverty, hunger, terror...
I must finish this comment positively though since I come from Georgia (former Soviet republic) and it's always been a rebellious one among other republics, never pessimistic :lol:
I hope, there will never be world war and nobody will experience any terror and holocaust.
P.S. I absolutely liked how Susie has noticed about Russians' reaction to the word "occupation". Coming from one of the Soviet countries, that word makes me shiver a bit too.
Thanks for commenting--I always enjoy your perspective on these things. We have many Georgian friends (and I do love me some khachapouri!) and I'm sympathetic to the awkward position Georgia often finds itself in with regards to Russia.
DeleteI do understand that Russia is hardly blameless in global conflict--one only need look as far as Afghanistan or, more recently, Chechnya. (Or goodness, the history of the gulags against their own people!) It is complicated to be sure. But I don't think any country on earth is blameless in either its geopolitical stance or its treatment of its own people, either minorities or just the population at large. And it is true I tend a bit in the pessimistic direction, at least as far as history is concerned. I think I appreciate the Russian attitude toward suffering and strife (which is to say, the expected course of life, rather than an abberation from which we must retreat, medicate, get rid of at all costs, as in the American mindset).
Thanks for taking time to add your voice!!